RANDOM THOUGHTS #13: THE APOCALYPSE
Steve Cole muses: I am going to dedicate this entire collection to apocalyptic scenarios such as the TV show THE COLONY. The scenario is that 99.99% of the population has died of some kind of mutated and deadly virus, and the government has decided to round up survivors and establish them in small isolated colonies far enough apart avoid infection while feeding themselves and scavenging or building whatever they need (windmill generators, for example).
1. The first question is just how fast did 99.99% of the population die. If they all died in one night, then there are plenty of grocery stores, gun stores, gas stations, and hardware stores fully stocked with all we need to rebuild society. If, however, this die-off happened over weeks or months, then panic spread, production/transportation of anything and everything stopped (along with transportation of such items from production to warehouses to stores) and things are going to be much more difficult to put back together.
2. If the VOPA (Viral Outbreak Protection Agency) scenario of THE COLONY is valid, this group of colonists would have been given guns to defend themselves. The USA is awash in guns and ammo, and there would be no problem for the government to give some to the colonists and no problem for roaming bands of people to find guns. No doubt, the TV show couldn't have guns or any confrontation between the reality show colonists and outsiders would because very expensive to insure.
3. Somebody smarter than me should, in a real world scenario, figure out the minimum workable size of such a colony, and I think it's more like 20 or 30, not the 7 (later growing to 9, then 10, then 8) seen on the show. (No doubt, the TV show is limited to the number of people that some expert figured the audience could keep track of.) You need to have somebody on the watchtower all the time in daylight, and somebody awake and guarding the door all night, and the group on the TV show is too small to make this workable. The limit would be how much food you can find, hunt, or grow in a certain area, but you need more bodies than the show is using.
4. The colonists on the TV show (both seasons) never pay much attention to security (until it's too late and they're trying to secure what's left after an attack). That would be my FIRST concern. The TV producers need to include at least one soldier or veteran in each group (the real government would). It would also give them some kind of book about how to build a colony and security would be on page one.
5. There are, in this real world, a limited number of true survival experts. Being a soldier won't do; you need special forces types (or professional mountain guides or survival teachers). Failing to find enough of these guys, you need to have some kind of school established for teaching people how to hunt and fish, what plants are edible, etc. I can see VOPA sending a survival expert on a tour of colonies, helping each one. That would entail a risk of spreading infection, but different things can be tried.
6. A question about the core scenario is whether the farm animals all died. If not, putting a colony in a small town in farming country might be a good plan. I think fuel would also be a key problem. I'd actually put the colony in a place like Amarillo. It's a big enough city that you can find or salvage everything, but there is a small fuel refinery here, and plenty of oil wells within 100 miles with established pipelines feeding it. You just need one oilfield guy who knows how to turn the wells on and off.
7. Something the colonists never did much of (on either season) is recon. (We suspect this has more to do with areas near the TV show venue being private property not subject to scavenging.) They need to just walk around the look for stuff they can use (and a better place to stay). Steven Petrick and I marvel at this all the time. We'd be out on patrol every morning, starting with a circle of the camp looking for footprints, and then heading off to some area to see if we could find anything useful. We'd also move the colony to that old jail, a big concrete building that is defendable.
8. The government on the TV show has (in the scenario) found these survivors, made sure they are not infected, and planted them as a colony, after which, the colonists encounter various groups of other survivors who are not "government checked". It would seem to me that the government would have a means to gather these people to the fold. Each colony would be told: "If other people contact you, let us know, then tell them to wait at a designated area a mile away and the government will go check them out and either add them to your colony or move them somewhere else." The government would promise to deliver food if people go wait at the designated spot, so the people would probably go there. For that matter, I think that if you have a workable and defendable colony, you need to drive around (remember that refinery I mentioned, so fuel is not an issue) and post signs saying "For help, go 'here'" with instructions on where to go.
9. During the attacks, the colonists on the TV show have some people go inside the building to defend it, and some people stay outside to fight. Ok, that makes for good TV, but in the real world, the 19 attackers (not 30, we counted) would simply kill the few outside defenders.
10. Given no guns (which is ridiculous), the next thing I would do is make a bow and some arrows. Put that in the hands of somebody on the roof, and when the gang of 19 attackers shows up (who also have no firearms for whatever reason), you just fire a few arrows into the crowd. A few wounded and screaming comrades will take the wind out of the sails of any attack.
11. On the show, the colonists have decided (or perhaps the TV show producers have encouraged them) to raid the "militia camp" that these 19 attackers come from. Ok, I am as bloody minded as anyone (more than most) but the last thing I want to do is pick a battle with a stronger force. (Never fight a battle that you do not have to win.) If I recon their camp and figure out a way to conduct an attack that destroys them and steals all of their stuff, maybe I don't have to move from the colony to the fishing camp five miles down the bayou. Just attacking the militia and getting them angry is pretty dumb if I'm only moving five miles away.
12. Frankly, I think that the whole idea of moving the colony is a bad one. (Again, the colony is too small to send some of the people to secure the destination.) They have a compound that is defendable, and plenty of territory to scrounge, and lots of ruins they can scavenge, and this is where VOPA put them. The only real reason to leave is the militia, and I'm not sure I wouldn't be trying to find a way to merge with them, rather than attacking them or running away from them.
1. The first question is just how fast did 99.99% of the population die. If they all died in one night, then there are plenty of grocery stores, gun stores, gas stations, and hardware stores fully stocked with all we need to rebuild society. If, however, this die-off happened over weeks or months, then panic spread, production/transportation of anything and everything stopped (along with transportation of such items from production to warehouses to stores) and things are going to be much more difficult to put back together.
2. If the VOPA (Viral Outbreak Protection Agency) scenario of THE COLONY is valid, this group of colonists would have been given guns to defend themselves. The USA is awash in guns and ammo, and there would be no problem for the government to give some to the colonists and no problem for roaming bands of people to find guns. No doubt, the TV show couldn't have guns or any confrontation between the reality show colonists and outsiders would because very expensive to insure.
3. Somebody smarter than me should, in a real world scenario, figure out the minimum workable size of such a colony, and I think it's more like 20 or 30, not the 7 (later growing to 9, then 10, then 8) seen on the show. (No doubt, the TV show is limited to the number of people that some expert figured the audience could keep track of.) You need to have somebody on the watchtower all the time in daylight, and somebody awake and guarding the door all night, and the group on the TV show is too small to make this workable. The limit would be how much food you can find, hunt, or grow in a certain area, but you need more bodies than the show is using.
4. The colonists on the TV show (both seasons) never pay much attention to security (until it's too late and they're trying to secure what's left after an attack). That would be my FIRST concern. The TV producers need to include at least one soldier or veteran in each group (the real government would). It would also give them some kind of book about how to build a colony and security would be on page one.
5. There are, in this real world, a limited number of true survival experts. Being a soldier won't do; you need special forces types (or professional mountain guides or survival teachers). Failing to find enough of these guys, you need to have some kind of school established for teaching people how to hunt and fish, what plants are edible, etc. I can see VOPA sending a survival expert on a tour of colonies, helping each one. That would entail a risk of spreading infection, but different things can be tried.
6. A question about the core scenario is whether the farm animals all died. If not, putting a colony in a small town in farming country might be a good plan. I think fuel would also be a key problem. I'd actually put the colony in a place like Amarillo. It's a big enough city that you can find or salvage everything, but there is a small fuel refinery here, and plenty of oil wells within 100 miles with established pipelines feeding it. You just need one oilfield guy who knows how to turn the wells on and off.
7. Something the colonists never did much of (on either season) is recon. (We suspect this has more to do with areas near the TV show venue being private property not subject to scavenging.) They need to just walk around the look for stuff they can use (and a better place to stay). Steven Petrick and I marvel at this all the time. We'd be out on patrol every morning, starting with a circle of the camp looking for footprints, and then heading off to some area to see if we could find anything useful. We'd also move the colony to that old jail, a big concrete building that is defendable.
8. The government on the TV show has (in the scenario) found these survivors, made sure they are not infected, and planted them as a colony, after which, the colonists encounter various groups of other survivors who are not "government checked". It would seem to me that the government would have a means to gather these people to the fold. Each colony would be told: "If other people contact you, let us know, then tell them to wait at a designated area a mile away and the government will go check them out and either add them to your colony or move them somewhere else." The government would promise to deliver food if people go wait at the designated spot, so the people would probably go there. For that matter, I think that if you have a workable and defendable colony, you need to drive around (remember that refinery I mentioned, so fuel is not an issue) and post signs saying "For help, go 'here'" with instructions on where to go.
9. During the attacks, the colonists on the TV show have some people go inside the building to defend it, and some people stay outside to fight. Ok, that makes for good TV, but in the real world, the 19 attackers (not 30, we counted) would simply kill the few outside defenders.
10. Given no guns (which is ridiculous), the next thing I would do is make a bow and some arrows. Put that in the hands of somebody on the roof, and when the gang of 19 attackers shows up (who also have no firearms for whatever reason), you just fire a few arrows into the crowd. A few wounded and screaming comrades will take the wind out of the sails of any attack.
11. On the show, the colonists have decided (or perhaps the TV show producers have encouraged them) to raid the "militia camp" that these 19 attackers come from. Ok, I am as bloody minded as anyone (more than most) but the last thing I want to do is pick a battle with a stronger force. (Never fight a battle that you do not have to win.) If I recon their camp and figure out a way to conduct an attack that destroys them and steals all of their stuff, maybe I don't have to move from the colony to the fishing camp five miles down the bayou. Just attacking the militia and getting them angry is pretty dumb if I'm only moving five miles away.
12. Frankly, I think that the whole idea of moving the colony is a bad one. (Again, the colony is too small to send some of the people to secure the destination.) They have a compound that is defendable, and plenty of territory to scrounge, and lots of ruins they can scavenge, and this is where VOPA put them. The only real reason to leave is the militia, and I'm not sure I wouldn't be trying to find a way to merge with them, rather than attacking them or running away from them.
posted by Federation Commander at 11:01 AM
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